An anxious week starts for the crypto markets as the technical picture of Bitcoin has everyone looking at a potential “Bitcoin technical outlook death cross” form in the next week, indicating that it likely forms a $95,000 floor. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $90,000 with a recent local low of roughly $80,500, which puts the price into a state of uncertainty. Individual traders are still targeting $90,000-$96,000 for that week while the larger marketplace continues to show volatility. Technical analysis and on-chain metrics from CoinDesk, The Block, and CryptoQuant are indicating a possibility of some price stabilization over the next few days.
Current market setup
Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at around $88k. A weekly close above $92k may open the path toward $105–110k. While Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to cross over its moving averages or Bull Market Support Band, BTC’s momentum is still experiencing some pressure. The above indicators indicate traders should remain cautiously optimistic about upcoming price action, as well as closely monitor each candlestick for potential indications of a continued recovery.
Death cross and key levels
Recently, a “death cross” occurred when the 50-day simple moving average crossed beneath the 200-day simple moving average on November 15th. Historically, most death crosses can be used to identify local area bottoms, and the strength of any resulting rally from that area will depend on two factors: 1) How much “exhaustion” is reflected in the current price structure, and 2) Trading volume at that time. Analysts caution that if BTC fails to hold above $90k, it may set a lower high near the 200-day SMA at approximately $110.1k, limiting upside potential in the short term.
Who’s buying and selling
On-chain metrics reveal a redistribution pattern: long-term holders are selling while short-term traders are entering positions. Around 63,000 BTC moved from long-term to short-term addresses in the past 30 days. The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) recently hit a 15-month low, signaling both losses and retail capitulation. This mix of selling and buying pressure highlights the delicate balance between profit-taking and speculative accumulation.
Macro and Thanksgiving week impact
The coming week will provide many useful indicators for the economy of the US; among them will be PPI, PCE, Q3 GDP, and Jobless Claims, all due out soon. The current probability of the Fed cutting rates next month is 70%, which could create risk for investors. In addition, the US stock market has become clearly oversold, prompting more than one analyst to predict the “Christmas” rally, which might also stimulate the growth of cryptocurrency prices. As such, these macroeconomic variables will complicate the very near-term outlook for BTC.
Sentiment and risk appetite
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has limited upswing, is currently at 19/100, and shows extreme fear. Traditional fear indices for the stock market reflect an overall increase in volatility and are beginning to show signs of possible turning points, with an index at 11/100. A combination of both Retail and Social Media Sentiment indicates that retail traders exhibit similar levels of panic to what occurred during the volatile ending of December 2022. Many analysts acknowledge that most of the recent fluctuations are not attributable to major news events, but rather the resetting of leveraged positions and liquidations, which tend to over-emphasize short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin technical outlook death cross may indicate a bottom of $95K. Trading and seeing the behavior of investors and today’s price action will help assess BTC’s technical weakness versus the emerging signs of stability that are evident today. Next week, with macroeconomic data coinciding with investors’ behavior and BTC price action, BTC may decide if it’s going to correct lower or have firm support and bounce higher towards a price target of $96K. All traders and investors monitoring this market closely should watch key levels and speculative indicators as BTC continues to trade through this critical juncture.
