Ethereum enters MVRV capitulation zone — but the bottom may not be in as the second-largest cryptocurrency struggles to regain bullish momentum. In two weeks, ETH has declined by over 30%. Moreover, the MVRV Z-score has decreased to -0.42, which is correlated to a mass capitulation event. This violent price move has once again brought back discussions in the market about whether the ETH price bottom analysis systemically supports the long-awaited ETH price bottom, or whether the current ETH market capitulation area indicates a greater possibility of future pain.
On-chain data shows that the Ethereum MVRV capitulation signal is flashing again. Historically, deeply negative readings in the Ethereum MVRV Z-Score explained models have coincided with long-term buying opportunities. Still, analysts caution that not every dip in MVRV immediately marks a cycle low.
What the MVRV Z-Score shows for ETH
The Ethereum MVRV Z-Score, explained simply, compares ETH’s market value to its realised value, essentially measuring whether the asset trades above or below the average cost basis of all ETH in circulation. When the score turns negative, it indicates that many holders are underwater.
- Ether’s MVRV Z-Score is now around -0.42, a zone historically linked to holder capitulation
- The historical low is near -0.76 in December 2018, meaning current stress is still below the deepest cycle bottoms
- The metric highlights periods when the price trades well below the network’s aggregate cost basis
This reading places ETH firmly in the ETH market capitulation zone, though not yet at the extremes seen during prior bear-market lows.
Arguments for further downside
Some analysts believe that the answer to whether Ethereum’s bottom is imminent is “not yet.”
- Joao Wedson (CryptoQuant, Alphractal) describes the current structure as a “clear capitulation process,” but not at the scale of 2018 or 2022
- ETH recently fell to a local low near $1,825 before bouncing toward $2,100, though the broader trend remains weak
- Liquidity constraints ahead of the April tax season could increase forced selling pressure
The technical support at $2100 is still very important. If it cannot regain higher levels, it could bring prices back down to recent lows and continue to reinforce bearish sentiment, even amid the Ethereum MVRV capitulation signal.
Arguments for “one of the best windows to buy fear.”
Other market participants see the current ETH price bottom analysis differently.
- Tim Sun (HashKey Group) argues that Ethereum’s fundamentals, including Layer-2 growth, DeFi expansion, and developer activity, remain strong
- Current MVRV undervaluation mirrors periods such as March 2020, June 2022, and December 2018, all historically strong entry zones
- Michaël van de Poppe highlights the gap between spot price and MVRV “fair value” as a case for gradual accumulation
- Andri Fauzan Adziima (Bitrue) notes that negative MVRV phases have often preceded sharp recoveries
For long-term investors asking whether Ethereum will bottom soon, history shows that the best opportunities often appear when sentiment is weakest.
ETH Price vs. MVRV Z-Score (Recent Move)
Over the past two weeks:
- ETH price: ↓ 30%
- Local low: ~$1,825
- Current rebound area: ~$2,100
- MVRV Z-Score: -0.42
The chart structure reflects a classic capitulation phase, rapid decline, spike in fear, and early attempts at stabilisation. However, compared with the -0.76 extreme in 2018, today’s reading suggests stress but not full capitulation.
What this means for an ETH strategy
A negative MVRV Z-Score does not guarantee the final bottom. It does, however, historically align with periods when weaker hands exit, and longer-term investors begin positioning.
The possibility of additional downside risk remains, as macroeconomic headwinds & seasonal liquidity drawdowns now exist. The all-in, aggressive trading strategy carries obvious risks. Alternatively, a phased buying-in strategy (DCA), along with disciplined leverage management and ongoing analysis of factors that will impact Ethereum, including L2S, restaking advances, DeFi services, and stablecoin use, could be useful.
While Ethereum enters the MVRV capitulation zone, the bottom may not be in; the broader data does not support the idea that Ethereum’s core fundamentals are deteriorating. In previous cycles, similar conditions were uncomfortable to enter yet historically rewarding for investors focused beyond a single market phase.
