Market signals when crypto charts slide despite Bull Run potential are becoming harder to ignore. Even with strong crypto bull-run indicators such as live ETFs, easing regulations, institutional accumulation, and record highs in equities and precious metals, crypto prices keep drifting lower. The total crypto market cap is down 32% from the October ATH and nearly 13% year-to-date, prompting investors to question why crypto charts are sliding despite seemingly perfect conditions for a rally.
“Something is structurally wrong.”
Crypto analyst Ran Neuner is blunt: the market is facing a structural problem. Although the growing liquidity being created by the US government, from an overall pro-crypto position to launching spot ETFs and beginning corporate treasury purchases, the ongoing activity of purchasing anti-debasement assets like gold, silver, equity indices, and commodities continues to outperform crypto price movements, creating a significant disconnection between the current crypto market fundamentals and actual price performance.
Two paths for the market
There are a couple of ways the market could unfold. First, it could identify the “leak”, determining who is selling and where the breakdown occurs, whether in leverage structures, derivatives, or regulatory risk exposure. Alternatively, we could see a classic catch-up trade, where lagging assets violently align with their fundamental value. Economist Adam Kobeissi points out that this is a structural shift in a market with historically high leverage; recent mass liquidations will likely appear obvious in hindsight.
Who is pushing the price lower
The process by which pressure keeps prices down is not random. According to Plan B, it’s an “epic battle until sellers are exhausted”. Initial crypto investors who lost a lot in the 2021 crash and other recessions, technical traders reacting to RSI and trend indicators, and believers in the next 4-year cycle waiting for a full bear market create an extremely heavy, stagnant selling trend. These investors have put downward pressure on prices even when there is positive news.
“Winter is already here — not somewhere ahead.”
According to Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, the bear market for Bitcoin started in late October 2025. He sees BTC as the first significant risk asset to factor in the global economic contraction. Although there has been a recovery in the retail investor space, it isn’t back to previous cycle levels. Most of the gains from Bitcoin’s creation have occurred within Bitcoin rather than across the cryptocurrency market. Thielen states that “Winter is not coming, it is already on its way”.
Yet fundamentals are stronger than ever.
Even with prices sliding, the fundamentals show resilience. Pantera’s Erik Lowe emphasizes that 2025 marks one of the most important years for crypto infrastructure and policy. Regulatory tone and agency personnel changes in the US, the creation of strategic Bitcoin and digital asset reserves, growth in stablecoin volumes, expansion of real-world asset tokenization, and on-chain infrastructure improvements for institutions all point to long-term growth. According to his statements, the market is continuing to “build out its fundamental piles,” even though they do not currently appear overlaid on the price charts. Though price charts can, at times, show significant drops driven by fear, over-leverage, and a lack of retail day-trading excitement, it is important to note that there has been more underlying growth in its infrastructure and regulatory landscape than ever before.
At the crossroads of the crypto market, it has the chance to either decide what is still “broken” or to experience an extremely large catch-up move as it finally aligns current price levels with the fundamentals created to date in 2025.
